TWTR Twitter Daily Chart Negative Divergence Developing

 The money is chasing the high-flyers right now to end the year as evidenced by the dropping NYHL (showing less new highs with each market push higher) but stocks make new highs. There is a narrower and narrower group of stocks receiving all the love like TWTR, FB, GOOG, NFLX, biotech sector, etc.., you know the usual suspects. When these high-flyers crack, likely in the days and weeks ahead, that will likely signal the much-awaited market pull back. Twitter is a babe in the woods still yet only trading for 7 weeks thus far so technical analysis is limited. Drilling down to at least display a few moving averages due to the limited data set, price remains extended above the moving average ribbon. The indicators are negatively divergend over the last week so a spank down is needed, perhaps to the gap (brown circle) but the long and strong MACD line will want to see another price high. Thus, price may want to print in the 2 blue bubbles and then roll over.The technical analysis is limited since the stock is so young, but the projection is a pop to 60-62, then back down to 56-59, then back up to 60.00-62.80, then roll over for more extended downside. Keystone's 80/20 guideline says 8's lead to 2's so the move up through 58 hints at 62. The 59.80 print hints at 60.20 which was printed intraday on Friday. So you can be patient with the short side unless you want to try and time the drop (a short trade may be doable if TWTR spikes at the open) and be nimble to get out at the gap below. Otherwise, be patient and then once TWTR comes back up in the coming days, say above 61, a short position can be scaled into. Keystone has no position in TWTR and likely will not play it. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.Note Added 11:32 AM:  Equities pop higher and TWTR jumps above 62. The above idea remains in place. The expectation is a move lower from these levels, now at 62.39, under 60, then price to come back up again for more 62+, then roll over for more extended downside. Momo stocks are always tricky to play. This is only for traders seeking the wild ride.Note Added 4:05 PM:  All the high-flyers are up today, FB +4.5% and TWTR +7.7%. Twitter closing print is 64.63 and HOD 64.95. That's a momo stock for you. Same idea is in play, a jog move down back up then down again. Should now top at 65.00-68.20. The momo is not expected to move it higher than 68, but, if so, 68+ should lead to 72.

XLY:XLP Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Ratio Long-Term Weekly Chart Overbot Rising Wedge Negative Divergence

  A great longer-term cyclical and secular signal for markets is the XLY:XLP ratio. Or, if you prefer, XLP:XLY ratio which would be the inverse of the chart above. XLY is consumer discretionary (think Gucci hand bags, fancy cars, fur coats, diamonds, art, vineyards, designer clothes, etc...) and XLP consumer staples (toilet paper, toothpaste, cereal, soap, laundry detergent, etc..). The green circles show the wine flowing like water with consumers in a happy joyous mood spending money like drunken sailors and not the least bit concerned or worried about rough economic times ahead. The red circles show the hunker-down philosophy where consumers return the diamonds and furs and instead by soap and toilet paper as they worry about what the future holds in a tumbling stock market and/or global war, pandemic and terrorism.Life has been good for the last 5 years since the Fed and other central bankers have supported and pumped the markets higher each step of the way. The red rising wedge is finishing up as 2014 begins and the drops from falling wedges can be quite dramatic. The red and green dots show the stock market tops and bottoms, respectively, due to the price too far extended above or below the 89 MA. The dot-com bubble popped in early 2000, stocks bottomed late 2002 and then placed the bottom as the Iraq War started in March 2003. Everyone was living large with very low unemployment from 2003 into the October 2007 market top. Think back to those years; everyone was a big-shot driving around in new cars and taking fancy trips and so forth. The party ended as the Fall 2008 crash occurred. Folks were hunkered in a bunker in early 2009 but the Fed saved the day with QE 1 to pump the stock market.Price crossed down through the 89 MA about 3 or 4 months ahead of the actual October 2007 top and price crossed up through the 89 MA about 3 to 6 months after the March 2009 bottom. Thus, the top was left-translated and the bottom was right-translated. Since price remains extended above the 89 MA, with universal negative divergence across all indicators, the expectation is for the ratio to move lower moving forward. The money flow drops for a couple years showing the funds slowly distributing the high-flying stocks and placing that money into staples as time goes by. The main reason the ratio has not rolled over already is the robust spending by Chinese and also Russian millionaires and billionaires. The governments may confiscate their dough at any time so smartly, these wealthy folks are buying anything they can get their hands on; art, high-priced real estate, vineyards, diamonds, etc.. They figure even if they overpay it is better than the government confiscating all your money. This behavior pumps the XLY higher to keep the ratio elevated.The expectation is for the XLY:XLP to receive a spank down due to the neggie d and then move sideways to sideways lower for the weeks and months ahead, and for price to drop under the 89 MA within the next 3 or 4 months. Certainly, no one currently expects or is looking for this to occur. In 2014 and 2015, consumers will once again huddle in their basements hording soap and toilet paper only caring about daily needs. Sadly, the times where staples are preferred over discretionary coincide with recessions and depressions and/or major and dramatic negative global market events. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.Note Added 11:23 AM:  Equities pop today with the XLY up +0.3% and XLP down -0.2%, thus, the upward trend continues and the XLY:XLP ratio is at 1.55. Traders smack SWY -1%, who needs food? Traders smack K -0.9%, who needs cereal? Traders smack WFM -1.7%, who needs food let alone healthier food? PG is -0.7% so folks do not need soap or toilet paper either and instead buy booze; the wine is flowing like water. Instead of buying safe stuff traders are buying 4K Armani suits and driving brand new BMW's off the lot. Party on. (SWY, K, WFM and PG are all consumer staples stocks). This push higher today may very well be the near-term top for the XLY:XLP ratio as discussed above.

XLF Financials Weekly Chart Overbot Rising Wedge Negative Divergence Price Extended

 No one is talking about financials anymore. Each time the 2-week spurts higher occur, traders are boasting about the strength of markets and how financials will lead the way higher during 2014. Who knows? With the never-ending Fed orgy maybe they can pump things higher, but, the chart says no. Same-o stuff. Universal negative divergence. The recent momo is trying to sneak the RSI and MACD line higher but price is clearly running out of gas. Perhaps all the negativity with law suits and legal problems will hurt the banks. Or the TGT security breach disaster where banks now limit the amount of money you can withdraw from your account if you have one of their debit or credit cards affected. Remember, any bank can limit the amount of money you can withdraw from your savings and investment accounts. That is why you have to continue to set cash aside, literally cash, in a fireproof box at home as part of prudent overall money management strategy.The overbot conditions, rising wedge and negative divergence, as well as price extension above the moving averages, all say down. Projection is sideways to sideways lower for the forseeable future, weeks and months forward. XLF and financials, generally speaking, can be shorted now. Keystone continues to be on the wrong side of the trade holding financial shorts but the path forward should provide relief for the bears. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keystone's Evening Nightcap 12/19/13; GDP

 The dollar/yen remains above 104 all day long so equities remain buoyant. The broad indexes are lower today except for the Dow printing new all-time highs. The BOJ may have a stimulus announcement that would directly impact the yen, dollar/yen and Nikkei and U.S. stocks overnight. Market bulls are fine if dollar/yen stays above 104. Bears will be happy if the dollar/yen starts dropping lower. The following 4 parameters are creating the bull juice; VIX 14.20, JJC 39.82, GTX 4807 and UTIL 477. The bears need at least one parameter to turn bearish to initiate the market downside. Keybot the Quant is long. If 2 of the 4 parameters turn bearish, and the SPX loses 1801, and stays under, Keybot will likely flip short.For the SPX starting at 1810, the bulls only need one point, to touch the 1811 handle and the upside will accelerate slicing through the 1814 all-time high like a hot knife through butter and moving to 1820. The bears need to push under 1801 to accelerate the downside which will test the 20-day MA at 1796.48. A move through 1802-1810 is sideways. Quadruple Witching OpEx is on tap and a S&P and Nasdaq rebalancing so the volume will be strong with a potentially wild market day ahead. Watch the December starting number at 1805.81 since it determines if the month is up, or down. The SPX is above the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 1784.88 and the 8 MA is above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute both signalling bullish markets for the hours ahead.GDP is released at 8:30 AM. Kansas City Fed Mfg Index is 11 AM. Since the VIX is so close to the 14.20 bull-bear line in the sand, pay attention to volatility in the opening minutes. If VIX jumps above 14.20 and heads higher, the market bears will have a good day into the weekend. If VIX stays under 14.20, the bears got nothing and will limp into the weekend wounded. Watch the 4 parameters above, the dollar/yen 104 level, and SPX 1811 and 1801 to determine market direction.

FVX 5-Year Treasury Note Yield Sideways Channel

  The short end of the yield curve, 2's and 5's are moving higher in recent days which may cause Chairman Bernanke to raise an eyebrow. The green channel is in play and the indicators are long and strong wanting another higher yield after any pull back occurs. The histogram is not impressed with the move higher in yield. The positive divergence bounce occurred in late October. The 5-year yield may favor a move through the brown channel for the weeks ahead through 1.30%-1.75%. Trouble would occur in the markets if the yield breaks up through the 1.80% top since it would indicate the Fed has lost control. The blue bull flag targets 2.40% in the future. The bull flag would not be in play unless yield moves above the 1.80%.The projection is a move through 1.55%-1.75% for the next couple weeks, yield may tease the 1.80%, but the expectation is for a move through the brown channel for the weeks ahead taking things into early 2014. The chart can be reassessed then but the expectation would be a flat move through 2014 with yield probably leaking lower over time to the bottom half of the brown channel. In the near-term, the 5-year yield should remain buoyant. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX 30-Minute Chart 8/34 MA Cross Overbot Rising Wedge Negative Divergence

 As far as the 30-minute goes, it is not enthusiastic about price making further highs. The red lines show negative divergence across all indicators.  The overbot conditions and rising wedge patterns are bearish as well. The 2-hour chart (see previous chart) wants to see a touch more upside over the next hour or three but overall the SPX setting up to roll over moving forward. Considering all the joyousness after the Fed pumped the markets with ZIRP Forever last Wednesday, the eggnog may go sour and the Christmas tree may dry out with the needles dropping moving into the holiday mid-week. Projection is for SPX to roll over in the hours ahead. The 1822-1824, 1817-1818 and 1810 support levels are attractive downside targets.Bears got nothing until they attain a negative 8/34 cross and price would have to drop under the 8 MA at 1824.71 to start curling the 8 MA to the downside. The 8 MA is above the 34 MA signaling bullish markets for the hours ahead. A negative cross would be expected moving forward, perhaps tomorrow. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.Note Added 4:18 PM:  The SPX closes at another new all-time high at 1827.99. HOD is a new all-time high at 1829.75. The 8 MA on the 30-minute is 1827.80 so price closed a hair above. Bears cannot get a break. The 8 MA will not curl over to the downside until price moves under the 8 MA and stays under moving lower. Perhaps a move to 1830-1832 tomorrow then roll over to the downside (since the neggie d should remain in place). The 1-hour chart is negatively diverged across the board wanting all down from here. The 2-hour is trying to turn the MACD line negative and that will lock in the overall roll over for the SPX to the downside. Then we see what the bears got.

UST2Y 2-Year Treasury Yield

 The 2-year yield is showing signs of life off the bottom over the last couple days. The falling wedge, oversold conditions and positive divergence creates the low print and the springboard higher. Current print is 0.36. Stochastics already shot into overbot territory. Overall the chart may favor a sideways move through the brown channel at 0.3%-0.4%. The 10-year yield moves higher to 2.92% this morning, so the 2-10 spread is at 256, continuing to tease Keystone's magical 255 level for the 2-10 spread which is a line in the sand determining happy bankers versus sad bankers (due to the slope of the yield curve). This drama continues. Financials were up strongly yesterday, well over +2%, so traders definitely believe that the 2-10 spread will go to 260, 265, etc..., with the 10-year yield climbing to 3% and higher. The rationale for the move is that the economy is getting better.Interestingly, as the 10-year yield moves higher, the 2-year may try to keep pace and prohibit the spread from increasing. Bigger picture, the thinking is that the euro and dollar currencies, as well as Treasury yields, will move sideways for the foreseeable future in a challenging economic environment. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

The Fed Decision 12/18/13 Aftermath; Bernanke Announces Taper; QE Infinity Ends; ZIRP Forever Begins; Stocks Rally

 The QE taper arrives with a $10 billion per month reduction (split between $5 billion in bonds and $5 billion in mortgage securities) starting January but a bait-and-switch occurs with the Fed turning perhaps more dovish by extending low rates, well, forever. The QE Infinity program is replaced with the Low Rates Forever program. Interestingly, the QE programs and other stimulus measures were implemented by the Fed since the ZIRP, zero interest-rate policy, was not providing enough economic juice. Now the Fed is tossing the additional measures aside with the taper and instead main-lining a low rates forever policy--like tossing aside the wine coolers and supplying bottles of grain alcohol moonshine instead.Chairman Bernanke says rates will remain low well beyond when the unemployment rate drops below 6.5%. He is likely hedging his bets since the unemployment benefits were not extended and the unemployment rate may drop towards 6.5% far faster than anyone realizes (many of the unemployed will simply not be counted in the rate any more once their benefits end). Then, if the economy does pick up, the unemployment rate will jump strongly higher (counterintuitively) as folks flood into the stronger job market trying to find jobs. Bernanke is trying to anticipate and front run this potential problem that is why he is hedging the 6.5% number. Overall, the Fed news is like taking away the stale hard candy from the coffee table but replacing it minutes later with fresh chocolate bars. Yields remain flat since the Fed decision yesterday afternoon. Instead of the stock market dropping on the news of the taper, a robust upside rally results, fueled by short-covering. Those seeking downside market protection in areas such as long volatility ran for the hills with the VIX collapsing from over 16 to under 14 in less than 2 hours.But what has actually changed? The markets are continuing to respond in the same way. When news of the taper occurs in the first few minutes at 2 PM, the stock market plunged lower exhibiting the selling behavior that many traders expected, however, the bait-and-switch occurs immediately where Bernanke launches into a dovish presentation promising to be accommodative indefinitely, continuing to grow the balance sheet, and to keep rates low for the foreseeable future easily into and perhaps through 2016. This is unprecedented since the ZIRP would be in affect for 8 years, or more, as 2016 rolls around. Of greater interest is that no one appears bothered by this development. In addition, Bernanke restates yesterday, and Yellen agrees, that there are no asset bubbles in markets currently (the Fed has never been capable of identifying a bubble ahead of time in its entire 100-year history). The stock market catapults higher on the news. So the markets simply respond to the new candy. Low rates forever means companies can continue to fund buybacks to artificially pump the EPS higher and meet earnings goals. If earnings increase, stock prices increase. Traders do not care that the EPS is met through creative accounting rather than actual top line revenue growth.The QE tapering is starting in January 2014, next month, at $10 billion per month.  The current program is $85 billion per month of purchases. Thus, moving into February the purchases will be $75 billion per month and then drop $10 billion each month forward. Bernanke left the door open to adjusting the speed of the tapering, he says the process is data-dependent, but for obvious reasons, since it would indicate that his grand 5-year economic experiment is failing, the Fed will not want to go back and increase QE again. Taking the $10 billion number, simple division says 7-1/2 months are needed from February to the end of QE Infinity. This is the August-September 2014 time frame. If the economy turns south moving forward, the Fed will likely slow the QE tapering, so QE Infinity could continue through next year. These are reasons for the market bulls to be happy as the near 300-point upside move on the Dow shows. Bernanke wanted to button-up his tenure at the Fed with starting the QE taper, and he did. However, did Bernanke really begin the taper due to upbeat economic data, or, did he taper to mask his concern and fear over the growing size of the Fed balance sheet? Bernanke may have brilliantly masked this fear within the QE taper and extended low rates announcement yesterday. Magicians have a much easier time at fooling the audience when the audience wants to be fooled.The path ahead splits into many side routes now. What happens to the stock market if the economic data stalls and the QE tapering slows? Since the universal market consensus appears to now believe the stock market is rallying because the economy is improving and becoming better each day, if the economy weakens, would stocks sell off? The answer is probably not. As mentioned above, the same routine is in play. Stocks plummeted on news of the taper, but when the next sentences turned uber dovish and now a Low Rate Forever policy begins, stocks catapulted higher. What happens if the economy does accelerate into 2014 (despite the lackluster retail sales, lack of top line company revenue growth and continuing disinflation and deflation), does the stock market rally further? Or will stocks drop since the punch bowl will be removed quicker? Obviously, the Fed is the markets, and has been for the last 5 years. The saga continues.The stock rally after the Fed's new Low Rates Forever policy results in indiscriminate buying. The shorts were running for their lives and all sectors move higher. There is only one last bear remaining in the market and he is at the bus station waiting for the last ride out of town. Interestingly, the interest-rate sensitive stocks such as telecom, home builders and utilities bounced strongly, but, so did the banks. One of them is wrong. The 10-year yield holds steady at 2.88%. Markets cannot have it both ways. Either yields will leak lower moving forward (note and bond prices move higher) which says the interest-rate sensitive stocks are correct, or, yields will move higher which will crush the interest-rate sensitive stocks and reward the banks due to the steepening yield curve.The dollar popped on the Fed news with the dollar/yen leaping to 104.36, a phenomenal currency move. The weaker yen creates that Banzai! feeling and fuels the U.S. and Japan stock markets higher. The dollar/yen maintains buoyancy above 104 currently which will help maintain buoyancy in equities. Despite the joyous rally, the charts and technicals continue to signal a significant market top now in place or developing with an anticipated roll over to the downside expected at any time. The Fed announcement will help fuel the Santa Claus rally and favors the bulls through the end of the year. Long traders wave the ZIRP Forever banner. Obviously, all the long side buyers fully expect a continued rally using yesterday's enthusiasm as a guide. However, since the presents were delivered to the stock market early, one week before Christmas after all, Santa Claus may still fail to show at Broad and Wall.

XEU Euro Weekly Chart Negative Divergence

 The euro appears to have reached a near-term top. Europe will be happy with a lower euro since it will fuel the manufacturing and export industries and help them pull out of the recession and depression. A lower euro will be in concert with a rising dollar. The dollar is up after the Fed's decision yesterday. The interplay between the euro, yen and dollar continues. The dollar/yen spikes higher on a weaker yen and stronger dollar. The chart above hints at a continuing roll over to flat sideways move ahead perhaps through the brown channel. The indicators are weak and negatively diverged (red lines) showing no interest in price moving higher. The euro is at the upper standard deviation band again as well so another move to the middle band and perhaps lower band is in the weeks ahead.There are many inverted H&S scenarios off the bottom that can be drawn but the euro does not appear agreeable to moving much higher. The expectation is for a lower euro with an initial downside target at 135-136, with corresponding buoyancy in the dollar occurring.  The higher dollar should apply pressure on copper, commodities and equities. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

GLD Gold ETF Weekly Chart Downward-Sloping Channel Oversold Falling Wedge Positive Divergence Lower Band Violation

 GLD is the gold ETF. The weekly chart shows oversold conditions, falling wedges and positive divergence. Positive divergence on both weekly and daily charts is a strong combination for upside. Since the down move has momo, it may take a week or 3 to finish basing. Price fell through the lower standard deviation band so a move back toward 126 and higher is on tap for the weeks and months ahead. Price will need to break up and out of the blue channel to show the base is in. The downside appears limited for gold moving forward with a more attractive long side play in place and setting up. Projection is sideways to sideways higher moving forward. Keystone is long the gold miners but has no position in gold as yet. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keystone's Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics with Key Events Ahead 12/21/12

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On Friday, 12/13/13, the dollar/yen moves higher to 103.60 printing near 5-year highs so the Nikkei finishes higher and S&P futures are +6.  GM plans on selling its entire stake in Peugeot creating a -9% selloff today for this European auto maker. Ireland is the first euro zone country to exit the bailout program but remains mired in debt. Ireland’s 10-year yield has dropped from over 15% at the height of the crisis to under 4%. Irish Finance Minister Michael Noonan says Ireland is the “weakest of the strong (countries).” Euro zone banking authorities warn about virtual currencies (bitcoin) which means regulations are likely coming in the future.  Moody’s downgrades Puerto Rico’s debt rating to junk review. Pension obligations and high debt and deficits are sending Puerto Rico into a dire 2014.  UTX lowers its 2014 forecast. BAC is bullish on 2014 calling for SPX 2000. PPI is in line with estimates showing the disinflationary and deflationary scenario remaining on the table. Dollar/yen drops to 103.05 (stronger yen) so the S&P future drop to +3 before the opening bell. The central bankers are the market; as the BOJ weakens the yen they send stocks higher and when the yen strengthens the markets weaken. Markets are flat to slightly higher as the Friday the 13th trading session begins.  APC is slaughtered -12% due to a court ruling.  CSCO drops -0.5% now near 7-month lows.  TWTR continues the launch higher up +3% to 57. Twitter appears to be the new momo favorite. Utilities are weak creating a dark cloud over the broad indexes. TWTR nears 58.  Schaeble will retain the finance minister position under the new German coalition government. GOOG announces plans to manufacture its own chips which would cut INTC out of the pie. AMZN is planning a new business called ‘Pantry’ that will compete with the big box consumer goods giants like COST and WMT (Sam’s Club). HON announces a $5 billion buyback so it pops over 1% but then fades as the day moves along. It is absolutely shameful to see the Fed’s easy money flipped into stock buybacks day after day to artificially pump stock prices higher making the wealthy wealthier while providing no help for the structurally unemployed. Equities move sideways all day long and end the day flat.  The SPX sits on 1775 support. The Nasdaq ends at 4000.98. The RUT ends at 1107.05, a touch above the 50-day MA at 1106.07, setting up a bounce, or die, scenario for Monday morning.  The VIX is 15.76 ending near the highs, and the CPCE put/call is climbing, so traders are seeking protection. The VIX is above the 200-day MA at 14.34 which is a very negative market signal.  For the week, the SPX loses 30 points, -1.7%. The Dow dumps 265 points, -1.7%. The Nasdaq loses 62 points, -1.5%. The RUT drops 24 points, -2.2%. The broad indexes print the second consecutive down week. The SOX, semiconductors, lose -2.0% and the trannies, TRAN, are down -1.6%. The consumer staples, XLP, are smacked -1.9% this week with CLX -2.7%, PG -2.5% and KO -3.0%. Traders typically buy staples since they tend to be less affected during a broad market downturn so the selling indicates a continued lack of fear or worry in the markets. Instead, traders run to the high-flyers boosting FB +11%, TSLA +8% and TWTR +31% this week. If the markets continue lower all sectors will likely be hit indiscriminately. The broad indexes are weak this week in part due to the large amount of IPO’s that hit the market. More supply means lower prices (the stock must be absorbed by the market).  After the bell, TMUS jumps +7% and S shares +10% on a takeover bid from Sprint. The combination would create a competitive third player in the telecom space. GE boosts the dividend 16%; 22 cents. GS says the dollar will decline in 2014. Jerusalem receives several inches of snow (10 cm and more) which is a once in multi-decade event.  News hits the wires concerning a potential collision between U.S. and China warships that occurred one week ago in the disputed Japan island zone in the South China Sea.  The incident increases the tensions in the Asia theatre. A Wichita, Kansas, airport employee turned terrorist is arrested for plotting a suicide car bombing.  A school shooting occurs in Colorado by another person with mental issues. GOOG completes the Boston Dynamics acquisition which is a company that designs and supplies robots (famous for the Big Dog, Wild Cat and Cheetah animal-like robots viral on YouTube) for the Pentagon. This is Google’s eighth robotics company acquisition in the last 6 months.On Saturday, 12/14/13, China joins the ranks of the U.S. and Russia landing a spacecraft on the moon. The unmanned craft will release a solar-powered robot which will conduct geological testing. In recent days, ‘pitchfork protests’ are increasing in Italy and now ongoing across the entire country including Rome. Hundreds of protestors, mostly students, battled police and set off firecrackers near a meeting of the government ministers. Italians are fed up with high unemployment, falling incomes and political scandals. The pitchfork symbolism, now a call to battle for Italian farmers, truckers, business owners and citizens, started with the Sicilian farmers that are protesting rising taxes and cuts to the agricultural funds. The Ukraine top political circle unravels as officials are blamed for inciting violence against Kiev protestors. The social unrest around the world increases daily. Uganda’s largest copper smelter is damaged after a power outage. The Obamacare enrollment is approaching 400K but over 6 million have had their policies cancelled because of the new law and need to find insurance within the next 2 weeks. A poll shows that 3 out of every 4 young people will either not sign up for Obamacare or only rate it at a 50/50 chance that they would eventually sign-up. Obamacare confusion continues with the Whitehouse saying the errors from the web site are minimal but the insurers are saying the 834 enrollment transaction files are riddled with mistakes and errors. -----------------------------------------------------------On Sunday, 12/15/13, winter storms hit the northeast U.S. which negatively impact holiday sales. Nelson Mandela is buried at his final resting place. The Obamacare web site goes down and this outage leads into the scheduled maintenance period. Over 15K enrollment applications are lost and no one knows where the information is located. The Whitehouse says that every person enrolling will be personally contacted to make sure they pay the premium and contact their insurer. Confusion continues over the actual sign-up deadline date; is it 12/23/13 or 12/31/13? What a mess.  The spirit of Congressional bipartisanship ends at the Sunday talk shows when republican Representative Ryan, that helped develop the budget deal, says a fight on the debt ceiling limit in February and March is not off the table.  Japan’s Tankan Survey is better than expected although the capital spending by companies takes a sharp drop. China PMI Flash Manufacturing drops to a 3-month low when a rise was expected. The dollar/yen drops from 103.20 down to 102.80 so the stronger yen weakens Asia markets. The S&P futures drop to -9. A man is murdered at a New Jersey shopping mall during a carjacking creating more concern about holiday sales. On Monday, 12/16/13, the Nikkei and Shanghai Indexes lose -1.6%. Euro zone Flash PMI’s are up better than expected with Germany strongly higher over 50.0, however, France is the fly in the ointment reporting weak results at 47.0 and continued economic contraction. Copper and oil move higher but gold, silver and other commodities move lower. At 6 AM EST, the S&P futures are +7 staging an over 20-handle turnaround off the overnight lows.  European markets are up about one percent. Ski fashion manufacturer Moncler IPO jumps +41% in its Milan trading debut. The euro is 1.3777. AMZN workers protest in Germany.  The dollar/yen is using the 103 level as a pivot point. The NSA is considering amnesty for Snowden, the whistleblower that exposed the government spying on all U.S. citizens, to minimize any further damage from future revelations. Kiev protests are in a third week and growing in intensity. The harsh winter weather across the U.S. dampens consumer spending. The Hobbit movie sequel, “Desolation of Smaug,” is number one at the box office this weekend taking in $74 million. The 2-year yield is 0.32% and 10-year 2.85% for a 253 basis point 2-10 spread. FDX and UPS experience the busiest shipping day of the year today dubbed Green Monday. With the strong improvements in delivery, folks now place their final holiday orders on the Monday closer to Christmas when a couple years ago the first and second Monday’s in December were the busiest shipping days. The futures point to a gain of +10 for the S&P and +100 for the Dow. AVGO buys LSI; both stocks jump higher, +11% and +39%, respectively, which will help the chip sector today. AER plans to buy AIG’s leasing unit and it pops +34% . Empire State Mfg data is weaker than expected. TIC data and Industrial Production are stronger than expected. GS upgrades XOM.  C and VZ are upgraded. The markets leap higher at the opening bell. VZ jumps +2.5% and XOM leaps +2.8% due to the upgrades, however, C is up only +0.5%, a more tepid response on the banking side. The dip-buyers are running into the market to begin the new week. The 10-year yield leaks to 2.84% so stocks and bonds are both moving higher. Shamefully, nearly 500 companies have instituted buyback programs this year (using the Fed’s easy money) which pumps the stock market higher but does little else to help the overall economy. At 10 AM, equities are strongly higher with the major indexes up a uniform 1.0% indicating that the robots and trading algo’s are in charge today. News reports say explosives are found at Harvard University, potentially four bombs in four separate buildings, and students are evacuated, but it may be a bomb threat. Traders do not care keeping equity markets buoyant with the Dow up 170 points. IBM gains +2.7%. European markets close strongly higher with telecom stocks leading the way. ADM pops +2.5% after it announces a buyback. This phony Fed-induced stock pumping is nauseating day after day since it does nothing to create a job for Joe Sixpack; the Fed makes the rich richer.  Noted market technicians and strategist Tom DeMark comments on the similarity of current market behavior to the 1920’s and the charts hint at a potential significant market top occurring mid-January. Tom is best known for his 13’s strategy which identifies tradable market tops and bottoms. The technique has identified the market tops this year but the market pull backs are very shallow due to the constant Fed intervention. The 13’s technique continues to work for emerging and other markets that are experiencing less central banker intervention. TWTR receives 2 downgrades and drops -4%. OMED jumps +21% on news it will be added to the biotech index. HBL leaps +9% after completing an updated audit.  At the closing bell, the SPX is up 11 points, +0.6%, to 1787 back testing the 20-day MA at 1794 today. The Dow is up 129 points, +0.8%, to 15885. The Nasdaq is up +0.7% and RUT +1.2%. Semiconductors jump strongly higher. Financials are up but lag the overall market. IBM is up over +2% and creating about one-fourth of the move higher in the Dow. Dip-buyers trip over themselves to buy the long side with most traders looking for the Santa Claus rally. After the bell, BA increases the dividend by 50% and announces a $10 billion buyback so it pops AH’s. A court rules that the NSA spying program is unconstitutional which is a blow to the Whitehouse and those trying to justify the ongoing spying on all Americans.On Tuesday, 12/17/13, the NIKK gains +0.8% with the dollar/yen at 102.95. The Ukraine demonstrations continue with protestors wanting to join the EU. Germany’s new coalition government is sworn in and now fully functioning.  European car sales surge higher for 3 consecutive months, however, car registrations are actually lower in Germany and France. Germany’s ZEW Sentiment exceeds expectations, a blowout number in the 60’s. Draghi warns that a banking union must be finalized. He voices concern over the growing sovereign debt in Spain and Italy and how this may complicate matters moving forward. Europe is trading flat to weak. The FOMC 2-day meeting begins. Tech company executives meet at the Whitehouse to provide input into the Obamacare and NSA spying situations.  CPI is tame with inflation remaining a non-issue.  The broad indexes trade flat in quiet trading to begin the day. A Housing Market Index shows very bullish home builders but they are always bullish.  News from Moscow says Ukraine accepts a $15 billion aid package from Russia. Thus, the Ukraine leadership joins hands with Putin and the East and turns its back on the protestors, the EU and the West. The Ukraine 10-year yield calms from 9.9% to 8.8%. The SPX drifts sideways all day long. GOOG and HPQ recall the Chromebook 11 power chargers since they are overheating and melting, not exactly a fine selling point during this holiday spending season. The MSFT surface tablet is out of stock on the web but much of this is likely due to a low inventory rather than overwhelming demand. MMM boosts its dividend and increases the buyback. MMM leaps +3%, up 4 points which contributes about 32 positive Dow points. Senate agrees to the budget bill since they want to begin their holiday vacations. Flash drive companies WDC and STX are up over +3%. BA is +1.1%. The dollar/yen is 102.64 so the stronger yen creates a flat to negative bias with stocks. FB starts to run video advertisements on the news feed and receives an upgrade so it pops +2%. IRBT is upgraded and it leaps +17% higher. Equities end flat on the day. Colorful strategist Marc Faber of The Gloom, Boom and Doom Report says the Fed will never end QE. Faber says the Fed is sitting on a pile of dynamite, pouring gasoline onto everything, then ready to light a cigar and toss the match without any fear or worry. PAY announces lackluster results and drops -4%.On Wednesday, 12/18/13, RBI surprises and holds benchmark rate at 7.75% trying to combat inflation. The Indian bond and stock markets rally. China clamps down on bitcoin which drops to $555. Traders are sniffing out more stimuls from the BOJ Friday morning so the yen weakens and the dollar/yen climbs to 103, sending the NIKK +2% higher and U.S. futures are higher. S&P +6.  AMZN strikes continue in Germany; about 5% of the workforce is protesting. Merkel provides her first speech for the new government and says the banking union is the top priority as well as unifying the EU.  U.K. jobless claims fall the most since early 2009. The U.K. unemployment rate falls to 7.4%. Interestingly, U.K. wages are flat and there is a lack of productivity growth just like the U.S. Inflation will not exist if wages are flat to lower. The pound moves higher to 1.6351. Sweden’s finance minister says the banking union is a complex matter which is not the news Draghi wants to hear.  Mortgage Applications are down for 6 out of the last 7 weeks and now at decade lows. LEN beats and guides higher bouncing +4% pre-market taking all the home builders higher.  Global shipping bellwether FDX misses earnings and drops -1.5%. Perhaps not as many packages are moving as thought.  F guidance is weak so it dumps -3%. A short time later F is down more than -4% after saying operating margins will fall from 2014 forward.  Ford, that could do no wrong for the last couple years, deposits an egg in everyone’s Cheerio’s this morning.  The Housing Starts launch higher to 1.091 million the most since early 2008 five years ago.  The mixed news keeps S&P futures at +4 moving towards the opening bell.  The dollar/yen is 103.10.  Markets are flat to higher with homebuilders LEN, DHI and PHM up over +2%. JBL is down -21% which takes AAPL and CSCO lower in sympathy. MU, a long play darling for traders, is hit -7%. Markets are flat all day into the Fed decision. The FOMC announces a $10 billion tapering. Chairman Bernanke says the “Fed will remain accommodative” and “well past the time that the unemployment rate reaches 6.5%.” Markets fluctuate wildly, dropping strongly on the taper news, but then recovering even more strongly since rates will remain zero for 2 or 3 more years. The Dow catapults up over 200 points. The tapering is a non issue as traders buy stocks since rates may stay zero, well, forever.  This is the last press conference meeting for Bernanke.  The 10-year yield drifts lower to 2.86%; certainly not a big spike higher in yield that many expected when tapering would be announced. The dollar bounces. The dollar/yen jumps to 103.36.  As Chairman Bernanke takes questions in the Q and A, the SPX is up over 1800 and the Dow is over 16K. The Dow’s range is nearly 300 points off the bottom in about one-half hour’s time.  Markets remain buoyant as Bernanke fields softball questions.  Bernanke continues to say there are no asset bubbles in the markets. Gold is flat to positive. The dollar/yen climbs to 103.57. Volatility drops like a stone with the VIX dropping from over 16 down to 14. A huge short-covering rally occurs in the broad indexes. The SPX is up 30 points, +1.7%, to 1810.65, a new all-time closing high but not a new all-time intraday high. The Dow is up 293 points, +1.8%, to 16168, a new all-time closing high but not new all-time intraday high. Tech and small caps are up big but do not lead; the Nadsaq is up +1.2% and RUT +1.3%. Financials, XLF, gain a huge +2.3%. After the bell, ORCL beats on earnings but the stock is flat to lower due to slipping profits. The 10-year yield is 2.89%. VIX ends at 13.80. Crude oil is higher. Gold ends modestly lower at 1219. The dollar/yen leaps to a high at 104.36. Banzai!! The euro is 1.3703. The media is all abuzz crediting Bernanke for hitting a home run with his tenure at the Fed. Everyone is drunk on the Fed’s wine and does not care that the ZIRP, zero interest rate policy, will run for about 8 years before it ends, if it ever ends. A zero rate indefinitely is now viewed as normal for markets.  At the end of the excitement, the Fed oddly appears as if it is more dovish than ever even though it is tapering the purchases $10 billion per month. This pace targets 7-½ months more to taper to zero and end QE which would be the August-September time frame. When the taper news hit, stocks collapsed and the yields bumped slightly higher, and then when the clarity came with all the sugar-coating, and dovishness, and low rates forever, stocks catapulted higher, just like always. Sugar-Daddy Ben continues dishing out the candy. The Senate approves the budget bill so it is a done deal and will go to the president for signing. The bill hurts the future pension funds of veterans. A Manhattan court finds Michael Steinberg, an associate of SAC’s Cohen, guilty of insider trading. TGT says there is a theft of customers’ credit card information that occurred on the Black Friday weekend. Bitcoin drops to a low of $455 but recovers back above $500; China sends the virtual currency into a tizzy today. Several Obamacare exchange executives are either quitting or going on leave as enrollment numbers struggle. The Whitehouse launches an Obamacare ad program which is met with tweets poking fun at the ads. Italy’s figurehead President Napolitano warns of widespread social tension and unrest in 2014. The pitchfork protests continue with the unrest becoming more serious and no one offers solutions. On Thursday, 12/19/13, China’s central bank injects liquidity into the banking system. The Shanghai drops -1%. BOJ 2-day meeting begins. The Nikkei jumps +1.7% overnight. European Summit begins. FaceBook is raising cash with an offering and Zuckerberg plans on selling shares. FB drops -3% pre-market. BA loses a Brazilian airplane contract due to the NSA spying scandal. C says bonuses will be flat or down this year. DRI plans to split the Red Lobster chain from the company. DRI dumps -6.pre-market.  Jobless Claims rise. The 10-year yield moves higher to 2.94%. Gold briefly drops under 1200. TGT drops -2% on further news of the security breach with 40 million customer accounts.  The broad indexes are slightly negative to begin the day. ACN +4%. ORCL is the top gainer on the Nasdaq at +4%.  Housing stocks and utilities are weak on the higher yields.  Philly Fed, Leading Indicators and Existing Home Sales data are flat to weak. Housing sales are stalling; a large miss, the weakest in over 2 years, conflicting with yesterday’s housing sector joy.  Equities continue to favor the sell side but the Fed plans a double POMO pump first at 10 AM, then at 2 PM. WGO reports strong earnings but it drives into a ditch losing -12%. CAG grows earnings and gains +6.3%. Gold is under 1200 at 6-month lows. VIX drops under 13 verifying trader complacency. F -2.4%. A fourth Tesla fire occurs but the cause is the electrical outlet and not the car; TSLA dumps -6%. The dollar/yen remains above 104 allowing the stock market to remain buoyant. The broad indexes finish flat to lower with the Dow printing a new all-time intraday high at 16194.72 and new all-time closing high at 16179.08. The Nasdaq lost -0.3% and RUT lost -0.8%. After the bell, NKE earnings are in line but traders expect more and the stock stumbles lower.  RHAT beats on earnings and guides higher popping +11%.  Yellen’s confirmation will not occur until 1/6/14 since the Senate would have to stay in Washington until the weekend and of course they will not allow their holiday plans to be disrupted. Both democrats and republicans join sides to develop more sanctions against Iran which flies in the face of President Obama’s preferred direction. Weak leadership is filled by other means. Crude oil remains elevated with WTIC at 99 and Brent at 111. In a further knock to the president, the courts are ruling that the NSA spying operations are unconstitutional. The Fed’s file criminal and civil charges against Brian Jorgenson, a former senior MSFT manager. Jorgenson allegedly fed insider trading information to a partner in crime which resulted in $400K trading profits. TGT troubles continue with the security breach. One customer had funds taken from a bank account because she used a debit card at Target a couple weeks ago. TGT’s holiday sales will likely take a hit. OSTK decides to accept bitcoin for transactions. New York City prohibits the use of E-cigarettes just like regular cigarettes. The SEC says they considered taking action last year against the large banks such as GS, JPM, and others, but decided otherwise. Of course they didn’t, it is all one big incestuous relationship. Secretary Lew says he can take extraordinary measures, that have actually now become ordinary measures in recent years due to Washington’s dysfunction, to pay the nations bills beyond the 2/7/13 debt ceiling limit, but Congress must reach an agreement before March. The table is now set for the debt ceiling limit fight over the next 10 weeks.On Friday, 12/20/13, the BOJ concludes a 2-day meeting and continues to remain accommodative. The dollar/yen moves higher to 104.42. NIKK is flat so traders expected the easy money news for several days already sending the dollar/yen and Japan and U.S. stocks higher. China’s central bank injects liquidity into the banking system. China’s banking operations are occurring under the radar lately since they do not want to call attention to the troubling situation. The SSEC dumps -2% overnight on top of the -1% the day before. The Shanghai Index is down 9 out of the last 11 days from 2260 to 2125, -6%, losing -0.5% per day. The wealthy Chinese money is chasing investments in the U.S., Australia and other places rather than their own country. Why? S&P reduces EU’s AAA rating due to the ongoing weakness in Europe.  Sweden is concerned over a housing bubble caused by the global easy money. European and U.S. futures markets are flat to slightly higher.  BBRY releases horrible earnings but announces a 5-year partnership with Foxconn (the major manufacturing arm for AAPL products). The new CEO is likely cleaning house so his numbers can appear much better next year. BBRY is halted from trading for the news and then drops to 5.75, -8%, pre-market, when opened, but recovers above 6 quickly.  The 2-year yield is at 0.40% and 10-year yield at 2.95% moving higher. The 5-year yield moves towards 1.70% so the Fed is likely becoming worried that they are losing control of the short end (2’s and 10’s). Third-quarter (Q3) final GDP is 4.1%, a 4-handle, printing above the preliminary 3.6% estimate. Q2 GDP was 2.5%. The dollar/yen is pumped higher to 104.60 so a weaker yen sends the S&P futures to +4. The GDP is happy news but most economists continue to call for a 2% or lower number for Q4. Much of the GDP increase is due to inventory stocking so moving forward the consumers must purchase the goods produced to keep the party going.  Crude oil moves higher on the higher GDP news. HAL +2%. Today is OpEx Quadruple Witching and both the S&P and Nasdaq are rebalancing.  This will create a huge volume day especially at the open and close. Equities float higher after the opening bell. BBRY +4% despite the dire news. NKE -1%. The SPX and Dow print new all-time highs. Senate Leader Harry Reid is hospitalized. The Whitehouse changes the Obamacare law rules again instituting ‘hardship exemptions’ allowing folks to miss the deadline but keep their insurance creating more confusion with insurers and consumers. The Obamacare web site goes down for 3 hours embarrassing the president before he speaks at 2 PM ahead of his Hawaiian vacation. A poll shows nearly 80% of the uninsured folks do not want Obamacare. Shockingly, 50% of the uninsured have not even looked at the Obmacare web site or information concerning the new AHA program and nearly 60% say they probably cannot afford health insurance anyway. The Obamacare debacle continues. The president says 2014 will be a breakthrough year for the economy.  BBRY +11%. BA pops +1.3% on a $7 billion plane order. Europe indexes print a stellar week gaining +3.5%. The SPX tags 1820 at 11:30 AM EST, however, the dollar/yen, drops to 104. NAV drops -4% after reporting weak sales. AMZN launches over 400 at new all-time highs and appears unstoppable. Amazon’s market cap hits $185 billion only exceeded in the retail sector by WMT’s cap at $250 billion. The financial newsletter writers are the most bullish and least bearish in years. The market rally creates a festive, care-free and party atmosphere. Traders high-five one another and expect equities to stay lofty forever. TXT +8%. ZUMZ +8% on an upgrade. The Dow takes out the inflation-adjusted high from 2007 above 16200. Markets move strongly higher all day long. The Nasdaq is above 4100 lifted by strong Apple sales. AAPL +1%. Interestingly, the VIX recovers off the lows and actually floats higher as the day progresses. Financials lag as the short-end yields climb and the long end yields leak lower flattening the yield curve. FAST, a great bellwether for the manufacturing industries, drops -5%. Money is chasing into the high-flying and biotech stocks. TSLA +2%. GOOG is up +1.3% now above 1100.  Volume is large today as expected. At the closing bell, the SPX is up 9 points, +0.5%, to a new all-time closing high at 1818.32 and new all-time intraday high at 1823.75. The Dow is up 42 points, well off the highs, +0.3%, to a new all-time closing high at 16221.14 and new all-time intraday high at 16287.84. The Nasdaq is up 47 points, +1.2%, to 4105, a new 13-year high. The RUT gains 21 points, +1.9%, to 1146, to a new all-time closing high at 1146.47 and new all-time intraday high at 1147.12, only 12 pennies above the all-time high printed on 11/29/13. For the week, the SPX gains +2.4%, Dow +3.0%, Nasdaq +2.6% and the RUT is up a huge +3.6%. SOX, semiconductors, jump +3.3%, and TRAN, trannies, leap +2.8%. TMUS is up a huge +12% this week. Interestingly, the short-end Treasury yields are climbing with the 2-year yield towards 0.40% and 5-year towards 1.70% while the 10-year and 30-year yields are flat to lower, flattening, not steepening, the yield curve. Watch the yield on the 2's and 5's since if they continue to climb higher and higher, that signals that the Fed is losing control of the markets. The first lawsuit is filed against TGT concerning the security breach debacle and may develop into a class action. Customers are complaining that they cannot contact Target by Internet or telephone and swear they will never shop there again. With only a few days remaining in the holiday retail season, and the biggest shopping weekend of the year on tap, TGT panics and advertises 10% off everything to regain customer trust. The retailers continue to cut each other’s throats to move merchandise which will hurt company margins. Business television personality James Cramer says the current bull market may be an epic bull like the 1990’s. Cramer says several ongoing catalysts, such as increasing company profits and an encouraging job market, will drive the markets higher and higher. Pundits and analysts continue to preach uber optimism and bullishness encouraging folks to buy stocks while berating anyone bearish or negative on the markets. The VIX recovers today and ends at 13.79. The volatility remains low overall signaling traders completely relaxed and without worry about the elevated stock market. Further, the uber low CPC and CPCE put/call ratio’s continue to signal rampant complacency and lack of fear which always occurs at market tops.  On Saturday, 12/21/13, Federal housing regulators reach a $1.9 billion agreement with DB to settle mortgage-backed securities litigation against the bank involving Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The Detroit bankruptcy reorganization is ruled to continue without expediting the appeals process which is a blow to the employee unions and pension funds. Today is typically the busiest shopping day of the year; the last Saturday before Christmas. ANN, M, ARO, JCP and PLCE are slashing prices from 50% to 80%. The retailers are starting to give the stuff away. Internet shopping is a bright spot this year; however, the malls are not busy. Mall traffic will recover strongly today with Christmas only 4 days away. The Chinese wealthy continue to buy art, collectibles, real estate, vineyards, etc..., trying to hide their money from any chance of confiscation by the China government. Unfortunately, one unlucky Chinese billionaire dies in a helicopter crash as he viewed his new France vineyard from the air.----------------------------------------------------------On Monday, 12/23/13, Personal Income and Outlays. Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM will create a market pivot point.On Tuesday, 12/24/13, Durable Goods Orders. FHFA House Price Index. New Home Sales. Richmond Fed Mfg Index. Markets Close Early for Christmas Eve.On Wednesday, 12/25/13, Markets are Closed in Observance of Christmas holiday.On Thursday, 12/26/13, Markets Reopen for Trading. Mortgage Applications. Jobless Claims. Oil Inventories.On Friday, 12/27/13, Natty Gas Inventories.On Saturday, 12/28/13, extended unemployment benefits in the U.S. end.  Many of these folks will go on Welfare or disability.  The loss of benefits should hurt retail sales and food sales since those checks immediately flow into the economy. Interestingly, the unemployment rate will probably tick lower, under 7% and towards the Fed’s 6.5% target, since these folks will no longer be counted as seeking employment.------------------------------------------------------------On Sunday, 12/29/13, Japan PMI.On Monday, 12/30/13, Pending Home Sales Index. Dallas Fed Mfg Survey. Farm Prices.On Tuesday, 12/31/13, China PMI. EOM. EOQ4. EOY2013. S&P Case-Shiller. Chicago PMI 9:45 AM will create a market pivot. Consumer Confidence 10 AM will create a market pivot point. Gold is down on the year for the first time this century. The initial sign-up period for Obamacare ends (extended from 12/15/13 and then from 12/23/13) for those beginning insurance on 1/1/14. The Whitehouse is dumping the Obamacare problem onto the health insurance companies and doctors since they will be providing care in January to folks that either do not have insurance or may have only paid a partial payment for insurance. Serves them right since many supported the new law and helped create the debacle.----------------------------- 2014 ----------------------On Wednesday, 1/1/14, Markets are Closed in Observance of New Years holiday. A major Bradley turn date occurs where a major market directional move is expected in the 12/23/13 through 1/8/14 time frame. The Bradley turn does not predict direction, only that a strong move will occur one way of the other. Another Bradley turns in quick order so the beginning of the year may be a wild ride for the stock market. A new moon occurs. Markets are typically bearish moving through the new moon. On Thursday, 1/2/14, Europe PMI’s. Markets Reopen for Trading. Motor Vehicle Sales. Mortgage Applications. Jobless Claims. Natty Gas Inventories. Oil Inventories (one-day delayed). On Friday, 1/3/14, …Europe must finalize all plans for the new banking union by March.On Saturday, 1/4/14, Asia and Europe Services PMI.-----------------------------------------------------------On Monday 1/6/14, Yellen is confirmed as the new Fed Chair and will replace Bernanke on 1/31/14.On Thursday, 1/9/14, a Bradley turn date occurs where a market directional move is expected in the 1/2/14 through 1/16/14 time frame. The Bradley turn does not predict direction, only that a strong move will occur one way of the other.---------------------------------------------------------On Thursday, 1/16/14, a full moon occurs. Markets are typically bullish moving through the full moon.---------------------------------------------------------On Wednesday, 1/22/14, does BOJ decide to implement additional stimulus? If so, the yen will weaken with the dollar/yen currency pair running strongly higher to 105 and higher and the NIKK, DXJ and U.S. equity markets all running higher. If not, the dollar/yen will drop as well as Japan and U.S. stocks. On Friday, 1/24/14, Asia and Europe Flash PMI’s.---------------------------------------------------------On Tuesday, 1/28/14, President Obama provides the State of the Union speech in the evening.On Wednesday, 1/29/14, Chairman Bernanke conducts his last official two-day meeting (1/28 and 1/29) as Chair of the FOMC.On Friday, 1/31/14, Japan PMI. Chairman Bernanke’s term ends at the Fed. New Chair Yellen takes over.On Saturday, 2/1/14, China PMI.-----------------------------------------------------On Friday, 2/7/14, the initial Debt Ceiling Limit date is hit but Secretary Lew will take extraordinary measures to extend the deadline until the end of the month. Congress must agree to a solution quickly. Winter Olympics begin in Sochi, Russia, through 2/23/14.----------------------------------------------------On Friday, 2/28/13, the Final Debt Ceiling Limit Deadline is hit where the U.S. will default on obligations unless Congress reaches a solution today.----------------------------------------------------On Saturday, 3/15/14, the deadline for the Obamacare sign up period ends. The Whitehouse needs 7 million people (mainly healthy young people) to sign-up by today or the program will be bleeding money profusely and require a taxpayer bailout.----------------------------------------------------On Wednesday, 3/19/14, new Fed Chair Yellen talks at the conclusion of her first FOMC meeting (3/18 and 3/19). Perhaps Yellen will conduct press conferences and Q&A sessions for each Fed meeting forward instead of only the quarterly meetings? In February/March, Fed Chair Yellen testifies before Congress.In February/March, Congress discusses and develops a privacy code agreement since face recognition software is quickly gaining use across all levels of society, as is other privacy-stripping technologies.In February/March, the German High Court must rule on the constitutionality of the OMT program.  The decision is delayed from the Fall 2013. Many German citizens believe the OMT is simply a backdoor mechanism to fund other countries.In February/March and forward, European bank stress tests are ongoing and will take one year to complete (there are likely 10% of the 128 banks undercapitalized with no clear way on how to recapitalize these troubled institutions). The one-year timeline is chosen to keep stretching things out in the hope that the European economy recovers before further bad news occurs.In March, the ESM is officially “fully operational.” The Euro banking union is in place after delays from January 2013 to January 2014 and now to March 2014.In April, MSFT no longer supports Windows XP.In June, employer mandate provisions begin for Obamacare with many workers likely forced into part-time 30 hours per week or less employment.On Tuesday, 11/4/14, mid-term elections. The 2-year presidential race for 2016 begins.On Saturday, 11/15/14, the enrollment period for Obamacare in 2015 begins pushed forward from 10/15/14 by the Whitehouse and democrats so voters will not experience the sticker shock of higher insurance premiums.  Premiums will rise since too few healthy young people are signing up to support the program.© The Keystone Speculator. All Rights Reserved. 2012. 2013.

SPX Weekly Chart Overbot Negative Divergence Price Extended

  Nothing has changed on the weekly. Price comes up for a matching and higher closing high and the indicators are clearly negatively diverged across the board. There is no strength or desire by the indicators to see price move higher. Watch the blue lines in the right margin to determine if the neggie d remains in place if price continues higher. As long as the indicators stay below the blue lines, the market bears are fine and equities should roll back over to the downside in the days or week or two ahead. This analysis says Bah! Humbug! to the Santa Claus rally.The pink dots show the price extension above the moving averages so, like always, price will revert to the mean. Keystone's 80/20 guideline says 8's typically lead to 2's, so 1780+ opened the door to 1820+. The 1808 would lead to 1812. 1818 would lead to 1822. However, a downside move would be expected at any time. The charts are played out ready to roll over. The Fed cannot save the day this time since they just used their ammo yesterday to bring prices to the matching highs. This leaves the BOJ that may announce more stimulus tomorrow morning which would add upside oomph to equities. However, the dollar/yen has already ran this week with traders sniffing this move out ahead of time, so it may be a sell the news event (and a stronger yen and lower dollar/yen results).Thus, generally, the charts are topped out as well as other technical indications, the Fed already folded the tent and went home for the holidays, and the BOJ Banzai pump may be baked into the gingerbread already. In addition, and most importantly from a contrarian angle, no one expects a sell off, especially with Santy on the way.  There are no bears remaining, the last bear left town this morning on the Greyhound bus. Projection is sideways to sideways down moving forward for the weeks ahead. Watch your wallet. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

RUT Russell 2000 Small Caps 1-Minute Chart New All-Time Closing and Intraday Highs

 The RUT prints a new all-time closing high at 1146.47 and new all-time intraday high at 1147.12 in the final minutes of trading. The new intraday high cleared the prior all-time high at 1147.00 on 11/29/13 by 12 pennies. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

GOLD Daily Chart Oversold Falling Wedge Positive Divergence Lower Band Violation

 The standard deviation bands squeeze a quick flush lower for gold over the last few days. The lower band is greatly violated to the downside so a recovery with price should develop. The green lines show positive divergence. Price is down at the July levels and the indicators want to see a bounce. In the near-term, the indicators may want a lower low due to the downside momo, so a jog move over the next few days may be on tap but a bounce would be anticipated moving forward.Gold miners are a favorable sector for 2014 and they were beaten before gold, the metal, so miners continue to set up for their basing and recovery with the physical gold and silver metals not yet at their bottoms but very near. A large flush lower does not appear on tap as the consensus of traders are expecting. A few more days or a week or two and the bottom should be in for gold. Gold is always prone to the wild upside moves once the shorts begin covering. Keystone is long the gold miners but has no position in gold as yet. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.